Boardroom recaps Michelai’s Bet of the Week, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook, in Tech Talk to see how dialed in on the industry our resident tech reporter really is.
This year, I made over 40 bets focused on things I predict will happen across the tech industry.
When Boardroom’s weekly newsletter, Tech Talk, got a makeover in February, I started making bets on happenings across the tech industry. “Michelai’s Bet of the Week Presented by FanDuel Sportsbook” holds space at the bottom of the newsletter, and it easily became my favorite place to share my real and sometimes unhinged tech hot takes.
Now, I wasn’t making any wagers or putting up money for these bets, but some came true, and some didn’t.
Here is a rundown of every bet I made this year on tech, with some small updates on the big ones that have had movements.
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February
- Feb. 12: Calling it now: Twitter’s verified badge pricing model will fall apart in the next year because people won’t care enough to pay for a blue check.
- Feb. 19: As the SEC cracks down on crypto, lawmakers will attempt to implement widespread crypto regulations within the next year.
- Feb. 26: After steady progress with AI-powered chatbots, there will be talks of at least one AI-scripted film at the Tribeca Film Festival this summer.
- Unfortunately, this didn’t come true.
March
- March 5: Since Yuga Labs is the top household name in Web3, I predict that TwelveFold NFTs will sell out in four hours max when they drop.
- TwelveFold NFTs sold out in minutes when the auction concluded on March 6.
- March 12: Since Meta plans to release three more headsets before 2027, I think the big tech company will knock those Quest prices down again before the year is up to make space in the market for the new products.
- Meta knocked down the Meta Quest 2 price by $50 to $249, while the Meta Quest Pro is still $999.
- March 19: Even though lawmakers are scrutinizing President Joe Biden for not banning TikTok by now, I bet a deal will be reached very soon, and a complete barring of the social media won’t be necessary.
- March 26: If ByteDance puts a real deal on the table to sell TikTok, I’m going to bet that Oracle will arise as an early contender to buy the company.
April
- April 2: I’m going to go big here and say Twitter removing legacy blue checks will backfire tremendously, causing the platform to move back to a more traditional verification process.
- After discontinuing the Legacy Blue Check program on April 20, X began reinstalling them on accounts for deceased individuals and many celebrities by April 24.
- April 9: I’m going to bet that NFT.NYC will look a lot different next year, or not happen at all since it’s really just a week of hundreds of community events that can run throughout the year.
- April 16: I’m going to bet that Adidas will follow in Nike and RTFKT’s steps and release some exclusive ALTS apparel tied to the blockchain.
- April 23: I’m going to bet that streaming platforms will not ban AI services from using copyrighted music in favor of imposing some restrictions instead.
- April 30: This is a big one, but I’m going to bet that Microsoft won’t be able to close its acquisition deal with Activision Blizzard this year.
- This is probably the biggest bet I lost on this year since Microsoft closed the deal in October.
May
- May 7: Super hot take alert: I’m going to bet that more tech workers will push to unionize in the coming years as AI continues to disrupt the workforce.
- May 14: Since Twitter/X Corp is getting a new CEO, I’m going to bet that investors will begin talking about how to buy Musk out to push him out of the company.
- May 21: I am going to confidently bet that Montana’s TikTok ban will not hold up. I’m sure the ACLU is already drafting a lawsuit to detail how this ban violates freedom of speech.
- In November, a federal judge blocked Montana’s TikTok ban from going into effect.
- May 28: Following FaZe Clan’s latest round of layoffs, I’m going to bet that the once-beloved esports brand is going to file for bankruptcy or merge with another company pretty soon.
- Texas-based esports company GameSquare Holdings inked a deal in October to acquire Faze Clan.
June
- June 4: This seems like a no-brainer, but since AI leaders are warning that AI will overtake humans in the future, I’m going to bet that investors, consumers, and maybe even Congress will begin to question what they are actually building.
- June 11: After watching Meta knock down its Quest Pro price by $500, I’m going to bet that Apple will chip a little off the Vision Pro’s expensive price tag before the device goes to market later this year.
- Unfortunately, this didn’t come true.
- June 18: After finally watching Ready Player One for the first time (I know, I’m sorry) following the film’s tech comparisons to Apple’s new AR headset, I’m going to bet that streams of the movie will skyrocket as Apple shares more of its plans.
- June 25: Since President Joe Biden met with AI experts this week, I’m going to bet that we’ll see some joint AI regulations in the near future before we see any real crypto regulations.
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July
- July 2: Google seems to be a bit confused about how to build around emerging technologies right now, and after its recent job cuts at Waze, I’m going to bet we will see another big staffing restructure at the company in the next year.
- Google cut at least 40 jobs in its news division in October, but no big restructuring.
- July 9: Since there has been fodder about OpenAI getting acquired by Microsoft in its lifetime, I’m going to bet that we’ll see rumors of a deal on the table in the next year after the big tech giant sorts out its Activision Blizzard merger deal.
- July 16: While everyone is focused on generative AI, I always think about humanoids, aka robots. I’m going to bet that a new robotics and AI company building bots will arise soon.
- July 23: Since Amazon is bringing its pay-by-palm tech to all Whole Foods stores by the end of the year, I’m going to bet that another company will do the same with iris tech. (Kind of surprised Amazon didn’t try that first!)
- July 30: I’m going to bet that Xbox will end up selling its Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle-inspired pizza-scented controllers after Aug. 13. For now, fans can only grab one as part of a marketing campaign to promote Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem film.
- Unfortunately, this didn’t come true.
August
- Aug. 6: An unopened, first-generation Apple iPod sold for $29,000 via Rally this week, and I’m going to bet that, unlike cassette and CD players, these devices will continue to hold high value due to extreme scarcity.
- Aug. 13: Despite the Detroit Police Department’s trouble with facial recognition tech, I’m going to bet that more law enforcement agencies will adopt the tech, leading to more false arrests.
- Aug. 20: VinFast will go the way of Rivian, facing an extreme challenge (and plummeting stock prices) as it is unable to keep up with the sky-high demand for its EV offerings.
- Aug. 27: Despite the desirable $130 price point, I’m going to strongly bet that the new Atari 2600+ dropping in November won’t sell even half the units that the Atari 2600 sold, which was about 30 million.
- The console just released a month ago, so sales numbers haven’t been reported yet.
September
- Sept. 3: Amazon is pushing forward with its return-to-office policy, requiring employees to report to an office three days a week, just as Meta recently implemented. I’m going to bet that tech workers will begin to push back on Big Tech companies to fight the crackdown on in-office policies in favor of remote work.
- Sept. 10: Warner Music Central Europe signed a record deal with AI pop singer Noonoouri, and while this is a first for Warner Music, I’m going to bet that we won’t see a deal of this nature in the US anytime soon.
- Sept. 17: With Hulu and Disney Plus price hikes on the way next month, I’m going to bet that a tech company like Roku, for example, will offer a bundle deal of all the major streaming platforms in the next year. It’s like we’re headed back to the cable era of television all over again.
- Sept. 24: Snapchat+ hit a new milestone with 5 million paying subscribers, and while this is impressive, I’m going to bet that the subscription program will see a massive dip in interest by next summer.
October
- Oct. 1: Samsung is targeting content creators through a new sponsorship with MrBeast. I’m going to bet that this deal won’t drive significant sales for the Galaxy Z Flip 5 as the mobile brand expects it to.
- Oct. 8: Meta is testing a $14-a-month subscription service in the UK for users who want an advertisement-free Instagram or Facebook experience. TikTok is also internationally testing a similar feature for $4.99 a month. Since social networks don’t operate like streaming services, I’m going to bet that this offering won’t thrive in the US.
- Oct. 15: Joby Aviation Founder JoeBen Bevirt said his company can deliver on launching a commercial air taxi service in 2025. We didn’t get flying cars in 2000 as promised, so I’m going to bet that flying taxis won’t arrive in 2025 or this decade.
- Oct. 22: After years of delays, Tesla will reportedly start delivering its much-anticipated Cybertruck vehicle to select customers on Nov. 30. I’m going to place a hot bet that we’ll see at least one recall or some sort of design change on the luxury electric SUV before the year is up.
- Unfortunately, this didn’t happen for the Cybertruck, but Tesla did do a big recall of 2 million of its flagship vehicles recently.
- Oct. 29: Shazam, the music identification app owned by Apple, announced a new feature called Concerts, which will recommend music events to customers based on their Shazam queries. With this expansion, I’m going to bet that Shazam will add a concert ticket-purchasing feature as well, or maybe Apple will build its own internal ticket sales tech.
November
- Nov. 5: The Information reported that TikTok users sent over $250 million to livestreamers on the platform by way of tips and digital gifts. With the potential to generate tipping revenue, I’m going to bet that TikTok Live will give other platforms like Twitch a run for their audiences pretty soon.
- Nov. 12: Despite Epic Games losing in a similar antitrust case with Apple back in 2021, I’m going to bet that the video game developer will prevail with a few wins in its antitrust trial against Google since the Big Tech giant is fighting multiple court battles right now.
- This was my biggest win on a bet of the year since Epic Games prevailed against Google on all fronts.
- Nov. 19: Indie studio A24 was granted the rights to make a movie based on Walter Isaacson’s biography of Elon Musk. I can’t pinpoint who I think will play the controversial tech tycoon, but I am going to bet that Musk will put his bid in to play himself in the highly-anticipated film.
- Nov. 26: Elon Musk confirmed that Grok will be available to all X Premium+ subscribers as soon as next week, but I’m going to bet that he’ll expand the AI chatbot to more consumers by Q1 2024 to compete with other AI chatbots on the market.
December
- Dec. 3: Lapse, a photo-sharing app that skyrocketed from No. 118 to No. 1 in Apple’s App Store in September, saw downloads drop as much as 70% in recent months. I’m going to bet that we’ll see an uptick in activity once Lapse opens up invites to the masses instead of only allowing users to join by invite codes from friends.
- Dec. 10: I recently shared some of my crypto predictions for 2024, and while I predicted that Bitcoin would break the $40,000 threshold in the new year, it already did that. I want to up that prediction and bet that Bitcoin will break the $50,000 threshold before May.
- Dec. 17: Nearly 20% of teens said they are almost constantly visiting or using YouTube and TikTok, a new report by the Pew Research Center found. As more kids get online to learn, play, and create, I’m going to bet that that figure will double by this time next year.
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